The asteroid 2024 YR4 has kept astronomers and astrophysicists on edge since its discovery on December 27, 2024. With a potential collision probability of 2.3%, the asteroid is set to pass very close to Earth in 2032, and the speculation surrounding its impact has only intensified. NASA engineer David Rankin has mapped out the possible countries that could face the asteroid’s strike, introducing the concept of a “death corridor.”

The “Death Corridor”

According to Rankin, this “death corridor” would be a wide strip of land running through the heart of the planet. He believes this is where the asteroid if it were to collide with Earth, would most likely land. Despite NASA’s statement that the risk of a collision is 1 in 43, the agency has redirected its best telescopes to focus on 2024 YR4. This level of risk places the asteroid at a “3” on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale.

Rankin’s calculations suggest the asteroid could hit one of the following areas:

  • The upper part of South America
  • Southern Asia
  • The Arabian Sea
  • Northern Africa
  • The Pacific Ocean

Potential Impact Zones and Risks

Countries at risk from a potential impact include India, Venezuela, Pakistan, Ecuador, Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Colombia, Sudan, and Nigeria. Rankin explained that the exact location of impact would depend on Earth’s rotation when the asteroid arrives. Additionally, the asteroid would descend at a staggering speed of around 60,000 kilometers per hour.

Despite these alarming possibilities, NASA has urged the public not to panic, as no definitive collision has been confirmed at this point.

Plans to Divert the Asteroid

Experts have proposed several measures to prevent a catastrophic event, assuming the asteroid’s trajectory remains unchanged by December 22, 2032. Some of the methods under consideration include:

  • Deploying a nuclear bomb
  • Using solar lasers
  • Utilizing kinetic impactors to redirect its path

In December 2028, the asteroid will make a preliminary pass by Earth, allowing astronomers to better gauge its size and velocity. Early estimates suggest 2024 YR4 has a size of 40 to 90 meters in diameter, though this could change with more observations.

For perspective, the Chicxulub impact, which occurred around 66 million years ago in Mexico’s Yucatán Peninsula, involved an asteroid estimated to be 10 to 15 kilometers in diameter – much larger than 2024 YR4.

The Consequences of an Impact

Should 2024 YR4 hit Earth, the impact would devastate an area of approximately 2,150 square kilometers—nearly 11 times the size of Buenos Aires. The destruction would be similar to the 1908 Tunguska event, which caused severe damage to the Siberian forest.

Next Steps for Monitoring

To gain more clarity, the James Webb Space Telescope will focus on 2024 YR4 in the first days of March 2025. This crucial observation will help scientists better understand the asteroid’s dimensions and orbit. After this, in May 2025, the telescope will revisit the asteroid, as it will become temporarily invisible to Earth-based telescopes in April.

The discovery and ongoing monitoring of 2024 YR4 may help avert disaster, but for now, the scientific community is closely watching the asteroid’s path, preparing for all possibilities.

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