I’ve written about this many times. A few weeks ago, I stated “Biden is ahead, but the race has been and will likely remain within the margin of error until Election Day.” That’s still the case today.
Even if you were to construct a 95% confidence interval for how the polls at this point have differed from the result, it’s about +/- 12 points. Biden’s advantage is just inside of that. It suggests there is only a roughly 1-in-20 chance that Trump wins the popular vote. In other words, it’s something that could occur, though is improbable.
Instead, Trump still has a decent chance because of the possibility of a popular vote/Electoral College split. We don’t know the true extent to which Trump has a better shot in the Electoral College than he does in the popular vote, but we know it exists.
(A look at the state level polling generally confirms this rough estimate.)
It’s far from impossible that Trump closes the margin with Biden by seven points. It’s an event that occurs about 1-in-7 times, if historical trends hold.
Trump has roughly a 1-in-7 to 1-in-11 chance of pulling off the victory in November, according to all these different models.
This may not seem like a lot, but it’s not nothing.
Pick up a simple six sided die that you probably have somewhere around your house. Trump’s chance of winning is nearly as good as you throwing the die and hitting a six on your first roll of the die.
Of course, we all know what happened after that. Biden won the South Carolina primary convincingly and was off and running to the nomination.
In the real world, the seemingly unlikely things happen all of the time.
The bottom line is that the most likely outcome is Biden winning and probably with some ease. But don’t be shocked though if Trump pulls another rabbit out of his hat.