Joe Biden is leading outside the margin of error in several key battleground states in a poll released the day before Election Day, giving him enough of a lead to take the White House.
Even deep red Texas appears to be up-in-the air with a tie between the Democratic nominee and President Donald Trump.
Florida, the most influential swing state with 29 Electoral College votes, and Pennsylvania, holding 20 Electoral College votes, are two states considered to be must-wins for Trump to secure another term.
But Biden is ahead in both, according to a Morning Consult poll released Monday and taken October 22-31 – by six points in Florida and nine in Pennsylvania.
The Morning Consult poll surveyed 4,451 likely voters in Florida and 2,686 likely voters in Pennsylvania.
The results in Pennsylvania, potentially the most consequential state for Trump clinching a win, are likely to still be unknown on Election Night as the Supreme Court ruled last month that the Keystone State can accept and count mail-in ballots through Friday – three days after the election.
Morning Consult’s projection for Pennsylvania is slightly rosier for Biden than Monmouth University’s, also released Monday, which puts the Democrat between five and seven points ahead.
If there is high turnout, it suggests he will win 51% to 44%, if there is ‘low turnout’ – which could include large-scale disqualification of mail-in ballots – he would win 50% to 45%. Monmouth’s margin of error is 4.4%, putting its predictions inside it.
Joe Biden is ahead of Donald Trump outside the poll’s margin of error in Pennsylvania and Florida, two states that could decide the election on Tuesday
One last push: Donald Trump exits his limousine to climb aboard Air Force One for a flight from Miami to Fayetteville, North Carolina, for the first of the five rallies of his final day on the campaign trail
‘One more day’: Joe Biden heads for his campaign plane at New Castle Airport in Delaware, to start day of campaigning in Pennsylvania
Support for Trump has dropped since the start of the coronavirus pandemic in the national Morning Consult poll
In Florida, pollster Scott Rasmussen, who predicted a Trump victory in 2016, gave Biden a four-point margin of victory in his final
Overall, Biden leads Trump by 8 percentage points nationally, with 51.9 per cent of the 14,663 likely voters surveyed by Morning Consult saying they would vote for Biden if the election were held at the time of the poll and 43.9 per cent saying they favor the president.
The 3 per cent remainder of likely voters polled say they don’t know who they are backing – a far lower number than in the 2016 election cycle.
Among those, 30 per cent say they are leaning toward Biden, 28 per cent leaning toward Trump, but a whopping 43 per cent saying they are more likely to vote for a third party candidate.
The national poll has a margin of error of only plus or minus 1 percentage points.
Biden is also leading in swing states of Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina and Arizona.
His lead, however, falls within the small margin of error for state polling of plus or minus 2 percentage points in Arizona, which has 11 Electoral College votes and North Carolina, which has 15 Electoral College votes.
Texas, a deeply Republican state that hasn’t voted for a Democratic president since 1976, is tied with the 3,267 likely voters polled split 48.1 per cent for which candidate they are casting their ballot.
National breakdown by demographic of who the 14,663 likely voters polled support in the presidential election
Voters line up to cast their ballots early in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. The Keystone State is allowing mail-in ballots to still be counted as they come in up to three days after Election Day – meaning the results there may not be known until Friday at the earliest
According to the rolling poll, the only swing state where Trump is leading in Ohio where he holds 49.2 per cent compared to Biden’s 46.6 per cent.
He is also leading outside the margin of error in Indiana, Missouri and South Carolina if the election were held the day respondents were prompted with the question of who they would vote for.
Morning Consult’s polling is slightly more positive for Biden than a Wall Street Journal/NBC poll published Sunday.
It shows Biden leading Trump by 52 per cent to 42 per cent, virtually unchanged over the last two weeks and in-line with a lead the Democrat has held for months.
But the poll also shows Trump gaining ground in 12 swing states that are crucial to election victory – where Biden now leads 51 per cent to 45 per cent, cutting the former Vice President’s lead from 10 points to 6 points in a little over a month.
Six points is within the survey’s margin of error, meaning there is now the possibility of a Trump upset in those states, which could hand him a second term in office.
Nationally, Joe Biden is leading Donald Trump by 10 points – virtually unchanged from the lead he held two weeks ago, and in line with polls going back months
But Trump is gaining ground in 12 swing states – Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin – bringing down Biden’s lead to six points, within the margin of error
The picture is complicated by the fact that Biden holds a lead of 61 per cent to 35 per cent among early voters, but Trump holds a lead of 61 per cent to 32 per cent with those who plan to vote on election day.
The poll was carried out by the Wall Street Journal and NBC, and collected data from 1,000 registered voters by phone between October 29 and 31.
The poll does not break down the so-called ‘swing states’ individually, but instead gives a single average figure across all those states.
States included in that figure are Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
The poll was carried out by Republican pollster Bill McInturff and Democrat Jeff Horwitt.
It showed that while Trump’s support has fallen among women and seniors – two big groups that turned out for him in 2016 – it remains rock-steady among white, working class voters who exist in large numbers in all the swing states.
‘This election is probably the most competitive 10-point race I’ve seen,’ McInturff told the Wall Street Journal.
‘The RNC has spent how many millions of dollars? And the only thing they’ve focused on is turnout of noncollege, white voters, especially in about six states.’
The poll showed that Trump leads Biden among white voters, whites without degrees, and has a very narrow lead with men – 48 per cent to 47 per cent.
Biden holds the lead over Trump with black voters, young voters ages 18-34, seniors, women, whites with college degrees and independents, according to the poll.
A majority of those polled said Trump is doing a bad job as president – 44 per cent approve to 54 per cent disapprove – while similar numbers said he is doing a bad job with coronavirus.
However, a majority – 55 per cent to 41 per cent – approve of his handling of the economy, one of only a few bright spots for Trump in the survey.
The survey also showed that 60 per cent of voters believe that the country is on the wrong track, with 55 per cent saying that the worst is yet to come.
Monday marks the final full day of campaigning for Trump and Biden, with each hoping to tip the race in their favor in the closing stages.
More than 93 million people have already voted and each campaign insists it has a pathway to victory, though Biden’s options for picking up the 270 Electoral College votes needed to win are more plentiful.
Trump is banking on a surge of enthusiasm from his most loyal supporters in the swing states, allowing him to eke out an electoral college win without winning the popular vote.
Heading into the closing 24 hours, Trump and Biden each painted the other as unfit for office and described the next four years in near apocalyptic terms if the other were to win.
The incumbent president told a rally in Iowa: ‘The Biden plan will turn America into a prison state locking you down while letting the far-left rioters roam free to loot and burn.’
Biden said America was on the verge of putting ‘an end to a presidency that’s fanned the flames of hate’.
Speaking in Philadelphia, the biggest city in a state that could decide the presidency, he said: ‘When America is heard, I believe the message is going to be clear: It’s time for Donald Trump to pack his bags and go home.
‘We’re done with the chaos, the tweets, the anger, the hate.’