Britain’s coronavirus vaccine drive is working, with the first published real-world data showing both jabs currently being deployed cut the risk of being hospitalised by the illness by up to 95 per cent.
Researchers examined coronavirus hospital admissions in Scotland among people who had had their first jab and compared them with those who had not yet received a dose of either vaccine.
By the fourth week after receiving the initial dose, the Pfizer and Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccines were shown to slash the risk of hospital admission from Covid by up to 85 and 94 per cent, respectively, they found.
Experts from the universities of Edinburgh and Strathclyde, as well as Public Health Scotland, claimed the data provided ‘compelling evidence’ that both vaccines cut the risk of being hospitalised.
Lead researcher Professor Aziz Sheikh said: ‘These results are very encouraging and have given us great reasons to be optimistic for the future. We now have national evidence – across an entire country – that vaccination provides protection against Covid-19 hospitalisations.
‘Roll-out of the first vaccine dose now needs to be accelerated globally to help overcome this terrible disease.’
The promising findings, which mirror data coming from Israel’s world-beating roll-out, comes after the UK’s vaccines ministers Nadhim Zahawi today said evidence that the jabs curb transmission — as well as prevent severe illness — ‘looks good’.
He told Sky News: ‘We wouldn’t be in this place this morning to be able to say that we’re going to reopen schools on March 8… if we’re not confident that actually the vaccine programme is beginning to really bear fruit.’
Boris Johnson is set to unveil the national ‘roadmap’ out of lockdown today, with all schools reopening from March 8 but precious few other easings until Easter.
The roadmap, which runs to around 60 pages, is set to include modelling supporting the government’s tentative strategy. It will be published alongside more positive news about the effectiveness of jabs in reducing transmission.
Nadhim Zahawi said the Government would not be looking to ease lockdown restrictions if they weren’t confident the first dose of the vaccine had driven down hospitalisations and deaths from the virus among the over-70s
The first real-world evidence of the jab roll-out in Scotland is based on data from the 1.14million doses dished out between December 8 and February 15.
Around 650,000 people in Scotland had been given the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine, while almost 500,000 had received the Oxford/AstraZeneca jab.
Researchers analysed hospital data over the 10-weeks – including GP records on vaccination, hospital admissions, death registrations and laboratory test results.
The team, whose results have yet to be peer-reviewed, compared the outcomes of those who had received their first jab with those who had not.
It showed that among those aged 80 and over — one of the highest risk groups — vaccination was associated with an 81 per cent reduction in hospitalisation risk in the fourth week, when the results for both vaccines were combined.
Although the leaked findings are lower than the 100 per cent efficacy shown in Oxford’s original trial, top scientists today insisted the results were encouraging.
Efficacy is always higher in controlled studies because researchers use more young and healthy people to make the trials run smoothly and quickly.
And the data is from people given just one dose of a vaccine. Data shows the jabs are more effective when a top-up is given up to 12 weeks later.
Older people — who are at the front of the queue for vaccines because they are most vulnerable — have weaker immune systems.
Separate Public Health England data expected to be published today will be the first time officials have released figures they say show the jabs are cutting transmission among the over-70s.
Top scientists have so far stuck to a cautious tone, claiming they are expecting to see the roll-out reduce hospitalisations and deaths ‘any minute now’.
Others said last week, however, they were seeing ‘early signs’ of their impact on these key measures.
Health Secretary Matt Hancock said yesterday the first dose was reducing transmission by two-thirds.
Britain is dishing out almost 400,000 doses a day on average — as it races to inoculate the top nine priority groups who are most at risk from the virus.
Almost a third of all adults in the UK have now been vaccinated, or 17.5million.
Mr Zahawi added on BBC Breakfast today that once the over-50s are covered the Government will ‘absolutely’ follow the recommendations of its scientists in expanding the rollout.
‘The Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI) are looking at that and we will absolutely follow what they recommend,’ he said.
‘The recommendation for phase one has been correct because it’s based on clinical assessment of who is most vulnerable to be hospitalised or have serious infection and sadly death in some cases.
‘So we’ll go back to the JCVI and they will make that recommendation and we will follow that recommendation.’
Reports suggest the committee will recommend the drive continues by age groups, meaning over-45s would be next in line.
Every adult in Britain could have received their vaccinations by July, according to reports.
It comes as Mr Johnson faced growing Tory backlash today over his ‘cautious’ route out of lockdown – with schools opening on March 8 but precious few other easings until Easter.
The plan will be unveiled this afternoon after it is rubber-stamped by Cabinet – with scientists seemingly having won the battle for a slow approach despite surging vaccinations.
The first steps to freedom will prioritise getting children fully back into classrooms in a fortnight’s time, while people will also be able to meet one friend or family member in the park for a coffee or picnic from March 8.
But the next stage of loosening will not be until March 29, when the Rule of Six will make a comeback – and to be extended to allow two households to gather, enabling relatives to meet properly for the first time in months.
Tennis courts and golf courses will also be allowed to open on this date, along with the return of grassroots football.
The plan will run the gauntlet of angering the Tory benches this afternoon.
Former chief whip Mark Harper, chair of the 70-strong Tory Covid Recovery Group, said: ‘Keeping restrictions in place ”because a new variant may come along in the future” is a recipe for never unlocking. Ever.’
FIRST JAB ‘CUTS TRANSMISSION BY TWO THIRDS’, SAYS MATT HANCOCK
Health Secretary Matt Hancock said it was ‘right to be cautious’ with easing lockdown
Matt Hancock says the first vaccine jab reduces Covid transmission by two thirds as he revealed a third of adults have now been vaccinated.
The Health Secretary revealed that one-in-three people over 16 had now been given one of the life-saving jabs, a boost to the country ahead of Boris Johnson’s roadmap out of lockdown that will be unveiled tomorrow.
Mr Hancock confirmed this morning that every adult in the country will be offered at least one dose of a Covid vaccine by the end of July.
Speaking on the BBC’s Andrew Marr Show, Mr Hancock said: ‘As of this morning, one in three of all adults in the whole country have been vaccinated – it’s great news.
‘We are confident the vaccine works effectively against both the old strain that has been here for some time and the so-called Kent variant, which is now the main source of infection in this country.
‘It looks like the first jab reduces your impact of transmitting the disease by about two thirds but we need more evidence on that.’
The Government previously said it hoped to reach all those aged 18 and over by the autumn, but Mr Johnson aims to greatly accelerate the successful campaign.
Mr Hancock also confirmed that everyone over 50 will be offered at least a first dose by April 15, rather than by May, as previously suggested.
But he warned that the Government would take its time lifting the coronavirus lockdown, saying it was ‘right to be cautious’ with 20,000 people still in hospital.
Speaking to Times Radio today he said coronavirus restrictions will be eased with ‘weeks between the steps’, suggesting that after schools reopen on March 8 there may be few other changes before April.
Mr Hancock also said social distancing measures and the wearing of face coverings is likely to remain for a while.
Asked earlier about the speed of the lockdown lifting, he told Sky’s Ridge on Sunday: ‘It is right to be cautious, it is incredibly important. There are still almost 20,000 people in the hospital with Covid right now. Almost 20,000.
‘The vaccination programme whilst clearly going very well, will take time to be able to reach all people who have significant vulnerability, especially because we also need to get the second jab to everybody.
‘So we have got time that needs to be taken to get this right, the PM will set out the roadmap tomorrow and he will set out the full details, taking into account that we need to take a cautious but irreversible approach, that’s the goal.’