Man City’s Premier League title chances have dropped by over 50 PER CENT, Opta’s supercomputer reveals, as rising Arsenal and Liverpool’s boosted hopes are confirmed by football stats boffins

  • Man City were given a 90.2 per cent chance of making it four in a row pre-season
  • City have however only won one of their last six games, drawing four 
  • IAN LADYMAN: I’d rather watch a match at my local school than watch Man City in the Club World Cup – It’s All Kicking Off 

Manchester City may be the reigning champions of Europe and England but their chances of retaining their Premier League crown have taken a major hit, according to Opta.

Pep Guardiola’s side have endured a rare rough patch in the last few weeks, winning just once in six Premier League outings dating back to mid-November. 

A 4-4 thriller at Chelsea sparked a run of four draws, one defeat and one victory as Guardiola’s previously irrepressible trophy-winning machine hit a sizeable bump in the road. 

While City have struggled in the lead-up to Christmas, rivals Arsenal, Liverpool and Aston Villa have made hay and are all ahead of Guardiola’s men in the Premier League table.

At the start of the season, City were given a 90.2 per cent chance of going all the way once again by Opta’s supercomputer.

Manchester City are only given a 39.3 per cent chance of winning the title this season, down more than 50 per cent from the start of the campaign

Man City have only won one of their last six games following a 2-2 draw against Crystal Palace

Man City have only won one of their last six games following a 2-2 draw against Crystal Palace

PRE-SEASON

1. Man City – 90.2 per cent

2. Arsenal – 4.1 per cent

3. Liverpool – 3.5 per cent

4. Man United – 1.7 per cent

CHANCES AFTER DEC 18

1. Man City – 39.3 per cent (down 50.9 percent)

2. Arsenal – 29.9 per cent (up 25.8 per cent) 

3. Liverpool – 23.6 per cent (up 20.1 per cent)

4. Aston Villa – 6.8 per cent (n/a) 

City are still the favourites but have been given a 39.3 per cent chance of repeating their feat of last term after the stalemate against Crystal Palace.

That 2-2 draw – sealed by a last-minute Michael Olise penalty for the Eagles – inflicted an 8.5 per cent decrease in their title chances, having been at 47.7 per cent the week before after a slender win over Luton. 

After City, the next most likely team to win the Premier League is Mikel Arteta’s Arsenal, who pushed the champions all the way last season.

Arsenal’s hopes had taken a bit of a knock after a defeat to Aston Villa the previous week, with their chances dropping to just 16.6 per cent according to Opta.

But a comfortable 2-0 win at home to Brighton on Sunday has almost doubled the likelihood of the Gunners ending their 20-year wait for a Premier League crown to 29.9 per cent, a 25.8 per cent increase from the start of 2023-24.

Arsenal have retaken second spot from Liverpool after the Reds had usurped the lead at the top of the table in the previous matchweek. 

Yet Opta clearly saw plenty in their 0-0 draw at home to Manchester United to decide that their credentials were not as strong as previously thought, dropping from 31.5 per cent to just 23.6 per cent, up 20.1 per cent from pre-season.

Jurgen Klopp’s side won the title in 2019-20 but their recent experience is seemingly not enough to rank them higher than the Gunners, who have not lifted the trophy since Arsene Wenger’s Invincibles in 2003-04. 

Fourth-most likely to go all the way is unsurprisingly Aston Villa after Unai Emery’s transformed side moved into contention for Champions League football. 

Mikel Arteta’s side are in second place according to Opta statistics after a win over Brighton

Jurgen Klopp's Liverpool had been in second spot last week before a 0-0 draw with Man United

Jurgen Klopp’s Liverpool had been in second spot last week before a 0-0 draw with Man United

Aston Villa's Unai Emery has transformed the side he inherited just over a year ago into genuine title contenders

Aston Villa’s Unai Emery has transformed the side he inherited just over a year ago into genuine title contenders

IT’S ALL KICKING OFF! 

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The Villans have beaten both Arsenal and Manchester City already at home this season, and are among the most dangerous outfits in the league, sat just one point off the Gunners in third place, level with Liverpool.

A 2-1 comeback win over Brentford on Sunday has seemingly only strengthened their claim, with Opta improving their chances from 4.1 per cent to 6.8 per cent, although they still remain some way short of the three front-runners. 

Fifth on the list is a Tottenham side that started strong but have been ravaged by injuries and suspensions in recent weeks, and now stand just a 0.4 per cent chance of claiming a first trophy in 15 years.  

Numbers according to Opta Analyst statistics.  

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