Despite Biden’s edge creeping down, he continues to hold a clear advantage.
In other words, Biden’s lead is down about 3 points from its peak.
Even so, Biden isn’t losing any supporters. He’s still at or slightly above 50%. This is a mark Hillary Clinton never hit this late in the 2016 campaign.
Perhaps, most importantly, there are no signs that the race is all that different than the one we saw before the death of George Floyd in Minnesota in late May. Biden seemed to receive a bump in the polls following the police killing of Floyd and the protests in the streets that followed.
Now, it seems the race has reverted to where it was in May.
The average of live interview polls that month had Biden up 49% to 42%. That’s the same 7 point margin we see now, but with perhaps a few less undecided voters. You would expect that given we’re much closer to the election.
Indeed, shifts of a few points in the national polls are to be expected during the course of the campaign. What makes this year’s race so unique is how little the polls actually have changed. Big movement in polls usually would mean double-digit shifts. We’re talking about 3 points of movement in the case of the 2020 campaign.
Of course, presidential elections in this country are not determined by the popular vote winner. You need to win in the Electoral College.
To that end, the polls out this weekend largely reflect what the national polling shows: Biden doing significantly better than Clinton did in 2016.
Zooming out and looking at the entire electoral map allows us to see the true extent of Biden’s edge.
If each candidate won the state they were leading in right now in the polling averages, Biden would take north of 330 electoral votes. He only needs 270 electoral votes to win.
If you only gave Biden the states where he is at 50% or higher and has a 5 point or greater lead, he’d still have over 270 electoral votes.
For now, though, the bottom line is that Biden is clearly ahead with just about 50 days to go until Election Day.