Joe Biden visited his childhood home in Scranton, Pennsylvania, Tuesday morning where he left a poignant message on the wall, before being mobbed by fans in the battleground state, after starting election day attending mass and visiting his son Beau’s grave in Delaware.
The Democratic candidate scrawled the message ‘from this house to the White House with the grace of God’ alongside his signature and the date of the 59th US presidential election on the wall of the living room to his boyhood home, as he stopped in the town just hours before the polls close.
Biden was then mobbed by a huge crowd of supporters who had gathered outside in a show of support – a far cry from the smaller turnouts at the socially distanced rallies he has held throughout the campaign season.
He then headed for Philadelphia for his second city stop in Pennsylvania Tuesday, as he makes a final play for the battleground state where pollsters and both political parties feel the White House race could be won or lost.
The final poll heading into election day puts Biden, 77, in a narrow lead over Trump, 74, in Pennslyvania and five other swing states of Florida, Arizona, Michigan, North Carolina and Wisconsin.
Across all six states the average was 50 per cent for Biden, and 46 per cent for Trump. Altogether the six states make up 101 of the 270 electoral college votes needed to claim victory.
Joe Biden was mobbed by fans gathered outside his childhood home Tuesday in a show of support for the candidate
Biden visited his childhood home in Scranton, Pennsylvania, Tuesday morning flanked by his grandchildren
The Democrat left a poignant message on the wall of the living room of his childhood home reading: ‘From this house to the White House with the grace of God’
Biden started election day Tuesday by attending morning mass and visiting his son Beau’s grave in Delaware (pictured)
Biden’s trip to Scranton came after he started election day by attending morning mass and visiting Beau’s grave at St. Joseph On the Brandywine Catholic Church in Wilmington, Delaware, with his wife Jill and teenage granddaughters Finnegan and Natalie.
Biden was seen walking into St. Joseph On the Brandywine Catholic Church in Wilmington with Jill, Finnegan and Natalie soon after 7 a.m. Tuesday.
The family attended a short mass at their local church before paying a visit to the grave of Biden’s late son Beau, an Iraq War veteran and Delaware attorney general, who was laid to rest there following his death in 2015 from brain cancer.
Biden’s late first wife Neilia and baby daughter Naomi, who both died in a car crash in 1972, are also buried in the cemetery.
Biden and Finnegan locked arms and she put her arm around her grandfather at one point as they took a moment at his grave.
Finnegan’s message to the American people was plain for all to see as she sported a face mask and black boots with the word ‘vote’ emblazoned on them.
This marks the second time in three days that Biden has paid a visit to the church after he was spotted attending a service there Sunday.
During that visit, he was met with a small group of pro-life protesters who shouted at the presidential candidate about his stance on abortion and held up banners reading ‘No Catholic can vote for Joe Biden’ and ‘Joe Biden equals abortion, euthanasia and infanticide.’
The three demonstrators, two women and one man, held signs and heckled Biden shouting ‘Joe, you’re a disgrace to the Catholic faith.’
They also heckled Biden’s late son chanting: ‘Repent for your soul’ and ‘Repent for Beau’s soul’.
Beau died aged 46 in 2015 from brain cancer and Biden often pays tribute to his courage battling the disease and also during his deployment to Iraq as a major in the Delaware Army National Guard.
The former vice president spoke of Beau during the first presidential debate in September as he hit out at Trump over his alleged disparaging comments about American military members.
‘The way you talk about the military, the way you talk about them being ‘losers’ and ‘suckers,’ Biden said, referencing the bombshell report in The Atlantic that Trump called the US war dead ‘suckers’ and ‘losers’.
‘My son was in Iraq. He spent a year there. He spent a year there. He got the Bronze Star.
‘He got the Conspicuous Service Medal. He was not a loser. He was a patriot and the people left behind there were heroes,’ said Biden.
The Democratic presidential candidate was seen walking into St. Joseph On the Brandywine Catholic Church in Wilmington with his wife Jill and granddaughters Finnegan and Natalie soon after 7 a.m. Tuesday
The family attended mass at their local church before paying a visit to the grave of Biden’s late son Beau (pictured), an Iraq War veteran and Delaware attorney general
Biden and Finnegan locked arms and she put her arm around her grandfather at one point as they took a moment at his grave
Finnegan’s message to the American people was plain for all to see as she sported a face mask and black boots with the word ‘vote’ emblazoned on them
This marks the second time in three days that Biden has paid a visit to the church after he was spotted attending a service there Sunday
WHAT THE POLLS SAY:
The final poll heading into election day showed that Biden, 77, held a narrow lead over Trump, 74, in six swing states, including Florida, as well as Arizona, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
In Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin – all of which Trump won in 2016 – Biden had the edge as of Monday night, however the poll showed the race as still being hotly contested, with the result hanging in the balance.
Wisconsin was the safest of the six, with Biden leading by 53 per cent and Trump claiming 45 per cent of support.
North Carolina was the narrowest of the six, with Biden generating a wafer-thin 49 per cent of support, and 47 per cent backing Trump.
Across all six the average was 50 per cent for Biden, and 46 per cent for Trump.
Trump’s home state of Florida was another incredibly close race, with the poll showing Biden leading by 51 per cent, while Trump had 48 per cent of the support.
Trump cut in to bring the conversation around to Biden’s other son Hunter.
‘Really? Are you talking about Hunter?’ he asked
‘I’m talking about my son, Beau Biden,’ Biden responded to which Trump said: ‘I don’t know Beau. I know Hunter.’
Biden’s Tuesday morning visit to his son’s grave kicked off election day for the Democratic hopeful, who currently leads Trump in the polls.
Biden then left Delaware to head to his home town of Scranton in Pennsylvania before he will later head on to Philadelphia.
He gave a thumbs up to reporters as he boarded a flight in Delaware to head to the Keystone State, taking with him granddaughters Finnegan and Natalie.
‘These are the only two of my grandchildren who have never been to Scranton. So we’re going home,’ he told reporters.
On his arrival in his hometown, Biden spoke to a local carpenters’ union, grabbing a megaphone to address about 50 people who were there.
‘It’s good to be home,’ he said. Then he referenced scoring a unanimous 5-0 vote in the tiny New Hampshire town of Dixville Notch, and turned it into a dig at his rival.
‘Based on Trump’s notion, I’m going to declare victory tonight,’ he quipped.
Biden then paid a visit to his childhood home, signing the living room wall with a historic message: ‘From This House to the White House, with the Grace of God.’
The message was written on the same wall he previously wrote another message during his 2008 run for vice president alongside then-nominee Barack Obama.
Back then, Biden wrote: ‘I Am Home.’
He emerged from the home to greet a crowd of supporters gathered outside, shouting: ‘It’s good to be home!’
The crowd cheered and shouted ‘We love you, Joe!’
Local resident and the current owner of his childhood home Anne Kearns spoke to the Democrat briefly outside telling him: ‘I watch ya all the time. I’m so proud of you.’
Biden also visited local sandwich shop Hank’s Hoagies and the home of Pennsylvania Democratic Sen. Bob Casey’s mother.
A person from a nearby house was being carried by stretcher to an ambulance nearby while he was outside.
Biden will then head to Philadelphia for the second of two city stops in Pennsyvlania, before returning to Wilmington where he and vice presidential candidate Kamala Harris will watch the results come in Tuesday night and deliver their election night remarks.
Harris is spending the last day of the race visiting Detroit, a predominantly black city in battleground state Michigan.
Biden takes a moment at his son’s grave. Beau was laid to rest there following his death in 2015 from brain cancer
Biden’s Tuesday morning visit kicks off election day for the Democratic hopeful with just hours before the polls close
Biden then headed to his home town of Scranton in Pennsylvania and will later go to Philadelphia
Trump also held one of his final campaign stops at Scranton Monday.
Minutes before Biden’s arrival in Scranton, Trump repeated unsubstantiated claims that the vote in Pennsylvania will be corrupted.
‘Philadelphia will be a disaster,’ Trump said during a hoarse early morning call-in interview on Fox & Friends after attending late night rallies.
Trump, who has previously refused to say he will accept the election results, said he would declare victory ‘only when there’s victory,’ following reports he might do so Tuesday night even as votes are still coming in.
However he also claimed he would win at least 306 electoral college votes and repeated his demand to know who wins on election night.
‘So my number last time was 306,’ he said of the votes he thinks he will earn.
‘I ended up with 306, that was good numbers – 223-306,’ he incorrectly said in reference to the outcome against Hillary Clinton in 2016.
‘And that was a big number. And I think we will top it. I’ll leave it at that. I think we’ll top it.’
Clinton actually earned 232 not 223 votes in 2016.
‘I’d like to find out on November 3, the end of the evening, or late into the morning whenever, who won the election. And that doesn’t allow that to happen. Unless there’s a blowout, or unless you don’t need Pennsylvania,’ Trump went on.
Trump was referencing a Supreme Court decision allowing the state to count mail-in ballots for three days after election day.
Late Monday, Trump said the decision by the high court will ‘induce violence in the streets.’
The extraordinary tweet, which Twitter slapped a warning label on, came amid preparations at the White House and in Washington for potential blowback in the event of a contested election.
‘The Supreme Court decision on voting in Pennsylvania is a VERY dangerous one. It will allow rampant and unchecked cheating and will undermine our entire systems of laws. It will also induce violence in the streets,’ Trump tweeted.
‘Something must be done!’ he added, without explanation.
The president has threatened to send in his lawyers to halt votes being counted that arrive after election day.
Under state law, election officials cannot start counting mail-in ballots until election day.
He gave a thumbs up to reporters as he boarded a flight in Delaware to head to the Keystone State
‘We’re going home,’ Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden told reporters as he headed to Scranton, Pennsylvania on election day. Here he talks with supporters there
Both Biden and Donald Trump have been eyeing Pennsylvania as one of the key swing states
Joe Biden arrives in his hometown Scranton to make a final play for Pennsylvania votes
Biden steps off the airplane at Wilkes-Barre Scranton International Airport with granddaughters Finnegan and Natalie. He told reporters in Delaware they were ‘going home’
Biden speaks to supporters at a canvass kickoff event at Local Carpenters Union 445 in Scranton
With the state’s top election official Kathy Boockvar saying there could be as many as 10 times as many mail-in votes in 2020 as there were in 2016, they could take several days to process and count.
Both Biden and Donald Trump have been eyeing Pennsylvania as one of the key swing states in the White House race.
Pennsylvania accounts for a significant 20 electoral votes meaning both Republicans and Democrats – as well as pollsters – believe the outcome of the state could dictate the entire race.
Concerns are mounting that Trump will declare victory in the state long before votes are counted or that he will attempt to stop mail-in votes being counted after election day.
Democrats are thought to be more likely to vote by mail-in voting given Trump’s constant rhetoric that the process is ‘rigged’.
Trump won the state by less than a point over Hillary Clinton back in 2016 however the latest polls show Biden is ahead by around 5 points.
Biden has visited the state more times than any other battleground state during his campaign trail and Trump has also focused heavily on drumming up support in the state.
Nearly 100 million Americans nationwide have voted early, and now it falls to election day voters to finish the job.
Biden entered election day with multiple paths to victory while Trump, playing catch-up in a number of battleground states, had a narrower but still feasible road to clinch 270 electoral college votes.
Control of the Senate is at stake, too: Democrats needed to net three seats if Biden captures the White House to gain control of all of Washington for the first time in a decade.
If Biden loses to Trump, the Democrats can still take control of the Senate if they take four Republican seats.
Meanwhile, the House is expected to remain under Democratic control.
Biden paid a visit to his childhood home in Scranton, signing the living room wall with a historic message: ‘From This House to the White House, with the Grace of God’
The message was written on the same wall he previously wrote another message during his 2008 run for vice president alongside then-nominee Barack Obama. Back then, Biden wrote: ‘I Am Home’
He emerged from the home to greet a crowd of supporters gathered outside, shouting: ‘It’s good to be home!’
Biden makes his way through the crowd outside of his childhood home on election day in Scranton with his family
Biden gives a thumbs-up to the crowd of supporters donning face masks and cheering for the Democrat outside his childhood home
Biden gives a fist bump to a supporter as he leaves local sandwich shop Hank’s Hoagies in Scranton
Biden speaks with supporters in Scranton as he makes a final play for the battleground state where Trump is also rallying today
Voters braved long lines and the threat of the virus to cast ballots as they chose between two starkly different visions of America for the next four years.
The record-setting early vote – and legal skirmishing over how it will be counted – drew unsupported allegations of fraud from Trump, who refused to guarantee he would honor the election’s result.
Trump made a morning appearance on ‘Fox & Friends,’ where he predicted he will win by a larger electoral margin than he did in 2016.
It marked the first in a string of media interviews on the final day of the race.
He headed to his campaign headquarters in Virginia for around midday and invited hundreds of supporters to an election night party in the East Room of the White House.
Meanwhile, First Lady Melania Trump cast her vote in the 2020 election Tuesday morning, arriving at a polling station in Trumps’ home state of Florida, one of several key swing states.
The 50-year-old First Lady flashed a small smile at the cameras as she arrived maskless to cast her ballot.
On their final full day on the campaign trail Monday, Trump and Biden broke sharply over the mechanics of the vote itself while visiting the most fiercely contested battleground, Pennsylvania.
The Republican president threatened legal action to block the counting of ballots received after Election Day. If Pennsylvania ballot counting takes several days, as is allowed, Trump claimed without evidence that ‘cheating can happen like you have never seen.’
In fact, there are roughly 20 states that allow mail-in ballots received after Election Day to be counted – up to nine days and longer in some states.
Litigation has centered on just a few where states have made changes in large part due to the coronavirus.
Biden told voters in Pennsylvania that the very fabric of the nation was at stake and offered his own election as the firmest rebuke possible to a president who he said had spent ‘four years dividing us at every turn.’
‘Tomorrow’s the beginning of a new day. Tomorrow we can put an end to a president that´s left hardworking Americans out in the cold!’ Biden said in Pittsburgh. ‘If you elect me as president, I´m gonna act to heal this country.’
Trump argued, at a stop in Wisconsin, that Biden was ‘not what our country needs.’ He added: ‘This isn’t about – yeah, it is about me, I guess, when you think about it.’
The nation braced for what was to come – and a result that might not be known for days.
A new anti-scale fence was erected around the White House. And in downtowns ranging from New York to Denver to Minneapolis, workers boarded up businesses lest the vote lead to unrest of the sort that broke out earlier this year amid protests over racial inequality.
Just a short walk from the White House, for block after block, stores had their windows and doors covered. Some kept just a front door open, hoping to attract a little business.
Both candidates voted early, but first lady Melania Trump was set to cast her ballot Tuesday near Mar-a-Lago, the couple’s estate in Palm Beach, Florida.
The candidates blitzed through the battleground states on Monday, with Biden also pushing into Ohio, a state once thought to be safe for Trump.
President Donald Trump said during a call-in interview with ‘Fox & Friends’ Tuesday that he believes he will ‘top’ the 306 Electoral College votes he won in 2016 to win again this year
Trump, who held 14 rallies in the last three days leading up to election day, dances after a campaign rally in Grand Rapids, Michigan Monday
Melania Trump arrived at a polling station in Palm Beach, Florida, on Tuesday morning to cast her vote in-person
First lady Melania Trump arrives to cast her vote at the Morton and Barbara Mandel Recreation Center polling place on Election Day
The president, for his part, packed in five rallies, Air Force One streaking across the sky as he drew crowds in North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and then back in Michigan again.
His finale stretched past midnight in Grand Rapids, where he had also held his last rally in 2016.
It marked the end of an era in American politics, one in part defined by the massive and exuberant gatherings that the president continued to hold despite warnings from his government’s own public health experts to avoid crowds during the pandemic.
The next president will inherit an anxious nation, reeling from a once-in-a-century heath crisis that has closed schools and businesses and that is worsening as the weather turns cold.
Trump in Grand Rapids insisted anew that the nation was ’rounding the turn’ on the virus. But Dr. Deborah Birx, the coordinator of the White House coronavirus task force, broke with the president and joined a chorus of Trump administration scientists sounding the alarm about the current spike in infections.
‘We are entering the most concerning and most deadly phase of this pandemic,’ Birx wrote in a memo distributed to top administration officials. She added that the nation was not implementing ‘balanced’ measures needed to slow the spread of the virus. One recipient confirmed the contents that were initially reported Monday by The Washington Post.
The pandemic has shadowed the campaign, which has largely been a referendum of Trump´s handling of the virus.
The challenge of counting a record-setting early vote added a layer of uncertainty to an election marked by suspicions fueled by an incumbent who has consistently trailed in the polls.
Get ready for the most nailbiting election in history: Your hour-by-hour guide to what to expect as America decides between Donald Trump and Joe Biden
Election night 2020 is unlike any American has seen before – with the presidency in the balance, and a record number of votes being counted in the teeth of the COVID pandemic.
Once polls close, the potential for chaos and crisis only begins. Here is DailyMail.com’s hour by hour guide to what to look out for as the U.S. passes its verdict on whether Donald Trump or Joe Biden should be in the White House, and who controls the Senate.
All times are EST.
First polls close in parts of Indiana and Kentucky.
All polls close in Georgia, South Carolina, Vermont and Virginia. The remainder of Indiana and Kentucky’s polls close. Florida polls except those in the Panhandle, which is in Central Time, close.
WHAT TO WATCH FOR
EXIT POLLS: The first exit polls could come within minutes – but in a pandemic year, it is unclear how accurate they will be, with at least 93 million having voted early or by mail-in ballot. A huge turnout in Georgia could mean lines still outside polling places – a problem which has bedeviled it in recent elections.
All polls close in North Carolina, Ohio, and West Virginia
WHAT TO WATCH FOR
NORTH CAROLINA – TRUMP WON IN 2016
First results will come within minutes – but they might be very small percentages of the total vote. North Carolina expects to have about 80 per cent of its votes counted on election night, starting with in-person early voting totals and mail-in ballots received by November 2. In the hours following polls closing, the state will report the in-person election day votes. The state does allow mail-in ballots to come in until November 12, so if it’s close, it may take several days to announce a final result.
Polls in North Carolina have flipped repeatedly between Trump and Biden. Trump won the state in 2016. An Emerson poll that ended surveying on October 30 shows the candidates tied. The Real Clear Politics polling average has Trump a tiny .5 per cent ahead. The Senate race is equally close fought, with Republican Thom Tillis hoping to hang on but Democrat Cal Cunningham up 2.2% in recent averages despite admitting to sexting a woman who was not his wife.
Could it be the end: South Carolina senator Lindsey Graham is in the fight of his political life with Jamie Harrison
SOUTH CAROLINA – REPUBLICANS DEFENDING ONE SENATE SEAT
Not in play for the presidential election – but a closely-fought Senate race could end Republican Lindsey Graham’s career and put Democrat Jaime Harrison in his place. Graham has been ahead in the three most recent polls by between three and six points but Harrison has out fundraised him by tens of millions of dollars and there has been too little polling to be sure that Graham is safely ahead. The state says it will start reporting from around
EXIT POLLS: Polls covering swing states of North Carolina and Ohio can be expected now. Biden’s campaign believes it can flip Ohio, despite it having gone to Trump by 8.3% in 2016. Its Republican governor predicts an ultra-narrow Trump win.
All polls close in Alabama, Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Tennessee, and Washington, D.C. Most polls close in Texas and Michigan. Central time polls close in Kansas, North and South Dakota. Remaining polls, those in Central Time in the Panhandle, close in Florida.
WHAT TO WATCH FOR
Must win: Barack Obama held a rally in Miami on Monday night in a push for Latino and black voters in the state
FLORIDA – TRUMP WON IN 2016
The first official results are expected within minutes of the Panhandle’s polls closing – and will give some indication how the perennial swing state has gone. Florida is used to processing large numbers of mail-in ballots. Early voting numbers will come out quickly as well. Those tallies will be followed by in-person voting. But officials believe they will still be counting into daylight on Wednesday.
Biden could have an early lead in that state and see it diminished as the night goes on. He has just a 1 point lead in the Real Clear Politics polling average in Trump’s adopted home state. By 8.30PM there should be a significant proportion of Florida’s results reported – so the state will at least indicate if one candidate or another can expect a blowout
OHIO – TRUMP WON IN 2016
First results could be announced as early as 8pm. Counties are required to announce the results of all absentee ballots received by Election Day and all early votes. They can then start counting ballots cast on election day and these will be updated through the night. The number of outstanding absentee ballots will be reported on election night, meaning number crunchers will be able to determine if there are enough outstanding ballots to sway the presidential race. Ballots marked postmarked November 2 can be counted until November 13 – so a clear result could take more than a week
Late-breaking polls in Ohio gave Trump a slim advantage in the state he won over Clinton in 2016, but that President Barack Obama and Vice President Biden carried in 2008 and 2012. The Real Clear Politics polling average shows Trump 1.4 points ahead.
OTHERS: The Associated Press, Reuters and TV networks are likely to start a rapid-fire declaration of likely winners in a series of states soon after 8pm – but it is only likely to already be considered safely Republican or Democratic already.
Arkansas polls close
All polls close in Arizona, Colorado, Louisiana, Minnesota, Nebraska, New Mexico, New York, Wisconsin and Wyoming. Remaining polls close in Kansas, Michigan, North Dakota, South Dakota and Texas
WHAT TO WATCH FOR
In trouble: Kelly Loeffler was appointed to the Senate to fill Republican Johnny Isakson’s seat but the best she can hope for in current polling is getting through to a January run-off
GEORGIA – TRUMP WON IN 2016, REPUBLICANS DEFENDING TWO SENATE SEATS
Georgia is expected to take about two hours to start reporting results. The state was allowed to start processing mail-in ballots on October 19. Additionally, after court challenges, mail-in ballots had to be returned by the time polls close – not just in the mail. The only exception is for Georgia voters living abroad.
Polls show an extremely tight race with Trump ahead by .2 per cent in the Real Clear Politics polling average . At the peak of Biden’s support, in mid-October, he was just 2 points ahead.
But there are two other races which could shape the senate. Republican Kelly Loeffler is running for the seat she was appointed to in a three-way battle: she is up against Republican Dan Collins and the Rev. Raphael Warnock, the Democrat. Warnock needs 50% for an outright win, or the race goes to a top-two run-off. Polls put him between 34 and 46 per cent, not enough for a knockout, while who between Collins and Loeffler is in second place is unclear.
Unusually, the other Senate seat is also in play, Republican David Perdue is running for anther term and may be in trouble with Democrat Jon Ossoff up 0.7% on average in a formerly safely Republican state. Both Republican incumbents have faced probes into possible insider trading – of which they were cleared – but realistically, both races are likely to become a January runoff which could determine who controls the Senate.
TEXAS – TRUMP WON IN 2016, REPUBLICANS DEFENDING ONE SENATE SEAT
It is possible that exit polling from Texas will give some indication of the race there as it closes completely. But what happens next is unknown. Texas allowed mail-in votes to be counted before election day, so the Lone Star state is expecting to know those results, as well as in-person voting on election night. Mail-in ballots have until November 4 at 5 p.m. to arrive, so if the state is extremely close, there could be some waiting at the end. The way the results are announced could show a Biden, then Trump swing – with a boost at the end for Biden from the remaining mail-in ballots.
The Real Clear Politics polling average gives Trump a 1.2 point advantage in the historically red state. Two polls – an Emerson and a Quinnipiac survey – from October showed the candidates tied. For most of the race, however, Trump has been more solidly ahead, with a poll here and there showing the state going blue. Officials expect rapid counting and results. In 2016, the winner was declared just after midnight – Trump took the state by nine points. But a close race will slow the Associated Press, Reuters and TV networks’ ability to call the race.
In the Senate, John Cornyn is looking for a fourth term as a Republican. He is polling ahead of Trump, averaging 6.8% over M.J. Hegar, the Democratic challenger. If Cornyn lost, it would be a sign that Texas is officially a purple state.
OTHERS: Safe states including New York are likely to be called rapidly from 9pm to 10pm. Biden’s numbers will go up more than Trump’s at this point thanks to New York’s 29 electors, and Illinois’ 20. By shortly after 9PM both campaigns are likely to have more than 100 electoral college votes in their column.
Polls close in Iowa, Montana, Nevada and Utah. Mountain time polls close in Idaho and Oregon.
WHAT TO WATCH FOR
Campaign: Gabrielle Giffords speaks for her husband Mark Kelly who is beating the Republican appointed senator, Martha McSally, in Arizona polls
ARIZONA – TRUMP WON IN 2016, REPUBLICANS DEFENDING ONE SENATE SEAT
The state is anticipating the first precinct reporting numbers by about 10PM. Early and absentee ballots that were cast by the weekend will have been pre-counted and those results will be announced rapidly. Ballots cast on election day are also expected to come in Tuesday night – the state historically counts quickly. But last-minute absentee ballots could take several days to be tabulated with Thursday or Friday thought to be realistic.Biden has been several points ahead of Trump in Arizona polls for months, but a Trafalgar Group survey and a Rasmussen poll showed Trump 3 and 4 points ahead in late October, potentially indicating a narrowing of the race. The Real Clear Politics polling average has Biden 1 point ahead.
Also in play here is the Senate seat to which Martha McSally was appointed: that held by John McCain. Democrat Mark Kelly, a former astronaut married to Gabrielle Giffords, the former Congresswoman left badly injured in a mass shooting, however is consistently ahead in the polls, by an average of 6.2%. Flipping McCain’s seat would be a massive blow to Republicans and suggest that Arizona is not just purple but trending blue.
ALABAMA: DEMOCRATS DEFENDING ONE SENATE SEAT
Alabama says to expect all results on election night.
The ruby-red state’s Senate seat went to Doug Jones, a Democrat, in a special election in 2017. Republicans saw their vote collapse when already controversial candidate Roy Moore was hit by allegations of inappropriate conduct with teenage girls, which he denies. Jones won by 1.5% and now faces Tommy Tuberville, a former Auburn University coach. Limited polling has given the Republican an 11-point lead in October.
MONTANA – REPUBLICANS DEFENDING ONE SENATE SEAT
Not competitive for Trump and Biden but Democratic governor Steve Bullock is running for Senate against Republican incumbent Steve Daines. Polling has been relatively scarce in this tiny state with the three most recent polls all suggesting a close race, with Bullock either behind Daines by three points, tied, or ahead by one.
WHAT TO WATCH FOR
WISCONSIN – TRUMP WON IN 2016
First results will start to be reported by now, with Washington County, which is mostly rural but has some Milwaukee suburbs, likely to be first to fully declare. The last results are expected from heavily-Democratic Milwaukee county by 7am. The Supreme Court prevented ballots arriving after November 2 being counted, meaning a complete count by Wednesday is realistic.
Trump took Wisconsin by just 0.8% in one of the 2016 upsets which cost Clinton the White House. Trump has held repeated rallies there – including in Kenosha on Monday night (right). In recent weeks the state has been one of the worst affected by coronavirus, but Trump has kept coming in the belief that he can repeat the 2016 surprise. His poll average there has been poor since summer, and it now puts Biden 6.6% up.
Polls close in California and Washington state and Pacific Time polls close in Oregon and Idaho.
WHAT TO WATCH FOR
MINNESOTA – CLINTON WON IN 2016, DEMOCRATS DEFENDING ONE SENATE SEAT
Expect some idea of the direction of Minnesota by now. Minnesota gave itself two weeks to start counting mail-in ballots, so results should come in November 3. Ballots in the state had to be returned by election day, which could also speed up the process.
Polls have never shown Trump in front of Biden, though the president has made a play for the blue state anyway, suggesting its demographics are similar to Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, which won him the White House in 2016. The Real Clear Politics polling average has Biden ahead by 4.3 points.
Democratic senator Tina Smith is seeking re-election with a challenge from Republican Jason Lewis. She has polled an average of five points clear of the challenger, who had to stop campaigning for much of last week because of emergency hernia surgery.
NEBRASKA – TRUMP WON SINGLE ELECTORAL COLLEGE VOTE IN 2016
Nebraska started counting its mail-in ballots prior to election day and absentee ballots had to be returned by November 3, so the expectation is the results will be out quickly. Nebraska splits its electoral college votes so that each Congressional district has one. Only one is competitive – Nebraska-02 , representing Omaha and its suburbs. It went for Trump by just two points last time and what little polling there has been puts Biden safely ahead by three points – although Democrats believe it could be more. Trump campaigned in Omaha in the hope of keeping the vote because in a narrow fight, it could be crucial. Nebraska is usually relatively quick and all results are due by midnight so look for it to be known by now.
COLORADO: REPUBLICANS DEFENDING ONE SENATE SEAT
Colorado was already mostly mail-in ballots so is expecting to be able to handle the pandemic’s effects more easily than some states. Partial results are uploaded come roughly every 90 minutes, so the first should be safely processed by now.
Cory Gardner, the sitting Republican senator, is facing popular former Democratic governor John Hickenlooper. There have been only two polls in October, each putting Hickenlooper up eight or nine points. In a state which was Clinton by 4.9 points in 2016, Gardner has closely associated himself with Trump, which Democrats believe will seal his fate.
OTHERS: Calls will come for the safely Democratic west coast. By now Joe Biden is likely to have more than 200 electoral college votes secured, with California’s mammoth 55 key to his big advantage – Trump may be on as few as 104 by this point. Now it is entirely down to the competitive states to see what happens next. Trump’s path to re-election might have ended by now, or might be a nail-biter.
Polls close in Alaska (except for those in its Hawaii time zone) and Hawaii
WHAT TO WATCH FOR
Reinforcements: Fear of losing Iowa and a Senate seat have sent Donald Trump and Mike Pence to Iowa to campaign with Joni Ernst
IOWA – TRUMP WON IN 2016, REPUBLICANS DEFENDING ONE SENATE SEAT
Counts relatively quickly and first results should be trickling through by now. Trump has overtaken Biden in recent polling in Iowa, after the Democrat had the lead through most of the fall. The Real Clear Politics polling average has Trump ahead by 1.4 points.
The last four polls had Trump winning in the state. The Des Moines Register survey gave Trump the biggest advantage, beating Biden by 7 – 48 per cent to 41 per cent. However, ballots postmarked by November 2 that arrive by November 9 can be counted too. This could give Biden a boost if the race is tight.
In the Senate Republican Joni Ernst is facing a formidable challenge from Theresa Greenfield. Four out of five polls have put Ernst ahead in October, but only one outside the margin of error, while another said the same for Greenfield.
Final polls close in Alaska – the voting is over everywhere
WHAT TO WATCH FOR
NEVADA – CLINTON WON IN 2016
Nevada mailed out ballots to every registered voter this year and those ballots just have to be postmarked by November 3 – meaning counting could go on for days. However, mail-in ballots can be counted before election day, so there could be some results reported on November 3. If it’s close, ballots being counted later will likely trend toward Biden.
Biden has been consistently ahead of Trump in Nevada polling, with Trump never ahead in a survey for the past year. The Real Clear Politics polling average has the Democrat winning the state by 3.6 points.
All over: Hillary Clinton was declared the loser by 2.29AM on November 9, 2016.
In 2016, this was when the Associated Press declared Trump had won and Hillary Clinton had lost.
MAINE – TRUMP WON ONE ELECTORAL COLLEGE VOTE IN 2016, REPUBLICANS DEFENDING ONE SENATE SEAT
Like Nebraska, Maine splits its electoral college votes, with one for each Congressional district. Maine officials are allowing mail-in ballots to be counted prior to polls closing.
But Maine uses a ‘ranked preference’ system which means that if one candidate breaks 50 per cent, the result is likely before midnight. But if one does not, ballots go to Augusta for second preferences to be tabulated, which could take it far into Wednesday.
Trump pulled away one Electoral Vote from Hillary Clinton in 2016 thanks to Maine’s 2nd Congressional District, in the north of the state. However, all three polls conducted in October showed Biden ahead by around 3 points there.
Republican senator Susan Collins also appears to be deeply vulnerable to Democratic challenger Sara Gideon.
Collins, who Trump has not campaigned for, is down by between four and seven points in October’s polls and was overwhelmingly outfundraised. She had held her seat with a 37-point advantage in 2014 but Democrats believe she is the most vulnerable Republican senator of all.
All about Michigan: Joe Biden campaigned with Barack Obama in Detroit on Saturday. Democrats are determined not to see a repeat of the 2016 upset
MICHIGAN -TRUMP WIN IN 2016, DEMOCRATS DEFENDING ONE SENATE SEAT
Michigan’s results will be slow to come in as mail-in ballot counting didn’t start until November 2. Michigan’s secretary of state estimated that it could take until Friday for all the ballots to be counted. The state could trend toward Biden later in the week, as Democrats are more prone to mail their ballots in.
Polling has had Biden ahead in Michigan, one of the three ‘blue wall’ states Trump won in 2016, for months – however, a late-breaking Trafalgar poll showed Trump up by 2 points. Overall, the Real Clear Politics polling average has Biden ahead by 5.1 points.
Democratic senator Gary Peters is also defending his seat against Republican John James. James, who is black, has been seen as a Republican rising star. But Peters’ polling average is ahead by 5.5 points, almost identical to Biden’s lead.
Hats all: No state has occupied each campaign more than Pennsylvania – but when the results of their efforts will be known is unknown
PENNSYLVANIA – TRUMP WON IN 2016
Mail-in ballots can’t begin being processed in the Keystone State until 7 a.m. on November 3 – meaning a final result could take days. Some Pennsylvania counties also plan to count in-person Election Day votes first – this could give Trump a perceived edge in the state, only for later ballots to move the count toward Biden.
Mail-in ballots postmarked on election day can arrive as late as November 6, further lengthening the process. The counting deadline is November 23 – a whole 20 days after the election – but officials have pointed to Friday as when most Pennsylvanians’ votes will be counted.
Pennsylvania polling had given Biden the advantage for months, but several late October surveys show Trump ahead in the state that clinched him his Electoral College win in 2016. The narrowed race has Biden up by 2.9 points in the Real Clear Politics polling average.
AND WHERE TO FIND THE CANDIDATES
TRUMP: The president will throw a party at the White House with several hundred supporters – who will all be tested for coronavirus, as the event will be held inside. The Trump campaign promoted an election night shindig at the president’s Washington, D.C., hotel, but Trump pointed a finger at D.C. Mayor Muriel Bowser – who in ‘phase two’ is limiting gatherings to 50 people – as the party pooper. As the White House is federal property, Trump can do whatever he likes.
BIDEN: The Democratic nominee will be in Wilmington, Delaware with his running mate, Sen. Kamala Harris on election night. The campaign has yet to release additional details on their plans. Before that, Biden will make one more trip to the Pennsylvania town where he was born, Scranton, and he’ll make a stop in Philadelphia, where his campaign offices were based. Harris will make a final election day stop too, in Detroit. As will Dr. Jill Biden, the former VP’s wife. She’ll be in Tampa and St. Petersburgh, Florida and then head to Wake County, North Carolina. Harris’ husband Doug Emhoff will be in Columbus, Ohio.
America has its say: Huge lines form at the crack of dawn outside polling stations across the country as Election Day voters add to 100 million ballots ALREADY cast
Americans have started casting their Election Day ballots in the bitterly contested presidential race between Donald Trump and Joe Biden as polling places opened across the United States.
Long lines started forming well before dawn on Tuesday with polls opening in some eastern states as early as 6am EST.
Those casting their ballots on Election Day will add to the record number of Americans – nearly 100 million – that voted early either in person or by mail.
Some who voted early were motivated not only by concerns about waiting in lines on Election Day amid the COVID-19 pandemic but also by extraordinary levels of enthusiasm after a polarizing campaign.
While there were long lines in many places, in some states lines were shorter – potentially a reflection of the massive early vote.
In Pennsylvania, dozens of voters lined up bundled in jackets and hats on an unseasonably chilly morning. Some voters in suburban Ohio and Michigan braved the cold temperatures as they started lining up outside polling stations before the sun had even risen.
UNION, KENTUCKY: Hundreds of voters wait in line at a polling location at the Larry A Ryle High School in Union
PALM BEACH, FLORIDA: People stand in line to vote at the Morton and Barbara Mandel Recreation Center first thing Tuesday morning on the last day to cast their vote for either Trump or Biden
LOUISVILLE, KENTUCKY: Voters check in with election officials before receiving their ballots at Ballard High School
MARSHFIELD, MASS: Voters braved long lines and cold weather outside a polling station at Marshfield High School
HOUSTON, TEXAS: Lines outside this polling station in Houston Texas stretched around the block after opening
In McConnellsburg, Pennsylvania, Martin Seylar, a 45-year-old welder who had just finished his shift, said of Trump, his preferred candidate: ‘He’s a bit of a jerk, and I appreciate that.
‘He doesn’t get everything that he says done, but the way I see it is he’s trying, versus where everybody else blows smoke at us.’
In Detroit, Republican voter Nick Edwards, 26, cast a ballot for Biden but voted for Republican candidates for Congress.
‘Honestly, decency in the White House,’ Edwards said when asked about his main concern. ‘When someone leads the party, they need to hold those values, as well. I don’t think Trump encompasses that.’
Biden, the Democratic former vice president who has spent a half century in public life, has held a strong and consistent lead in national opinion polls over the Republican president. But Trump is close enough in several election battleground states that he could piece together the 270 state-by-state Electoral College votes needed to win the election.
The most closely watched results will start to trickle in after 7pm EST when polls close in states such as Georgia.
Definitive national results, however, could take days if the contest is tight.
Results in Florida, where mail-in ballots can be counted before Election Day, are expected to begin to come in relatively quickly on Tuesday night.
But Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin will not begin counting the vast majority of mail ballots until Election Day, raising the possibility of a prolonged vote count that could stretch for several days.
CHARLOTTE, NORTH CAROLINA: Voters check in at First Ward Elementary School in Charlotte, North Carolina shortly after the polls opened on Election Day
LOS ANGELES: People wait in line for the vote center to open at the Pantages Theatre on the Hollywood Walk of Fame to cast their ballots
PORTLAND, MAINE: People wait in line to vote in Maine first thing Tuesday morning
LANSING, MICHIGAN: Voters in Lansing lined up outside Willow School before sunrise on Election Day