Data shows 23% of US counties are seeing uncontrollable COVID growth


Twenty three percent of counties across the United States are now seeing an uncontrollable growth in new COVID-19 infections, according to a data map – as model projections show Phoenix could see 28,000 new cases a day by July 18. 

A color-coded data map, compiled by spatial analytics company Esri, shows how the US is faring in terms of infections by tracking the number of new COVID-19 cases on a county level.

Updated data from Thursday shows that large parts of the South and Southwest are showing an ‘epidemic trend’ or ‘spreading trend’ for new coronavirus infections. 

The epidemic trend is described as an uncontrolled spread, while spreading indicates an outbreak that could still be controlled if preventative steps are taken. 

Of the 3,141 counties across the country, 745 are currently experiencing an epidemic outbreak and 1,232 are seeing spreading trends, according to the data map. 

Nearly 670 counties are currently seeing a controlled trend in new coronavirus cases. 

According to the map, the entire state of Arizona is seeing either epidemic or spreading trends.  

A color-coded data map, compiled by spatial analytics company Esri, shows that 23 percent of counties across the US are now seeing an uncontrollable growth in new COVID-19 infections. According to the map, the entire state of Arizona is seeing either epidemic or spreading trends

The majority of counties in states like Florida, California, Georgia, the Carolinas, Alabama, Louisiana and Mississippi are seeing similar trends. 

About half the counties in Texas are currently seeing epidemic and spreading trends in new infections. 

Infections across the US have been surging for more than a week after trending down for over six weeks. Currently, the US has recorded more than 2.3 million coronavirus cases and more than 121,000 Americans have died from the virus. 

New cases and hospitalizations have been spiking to record levels in states like Arizona, Texas, California and Florida. Los Angeles County now has the most cases of all US counties with more than 85,000 confirmed infections.

As cases continue to rise, forecast models from the PolicyLab at Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia predict infections in Phoenix will rise to a staggering 28,000 new cases a day by July 18.

That forecast is far worst than the daily cases epicenter New York City saw in mid-April.  

In Houston, daily infections are forecast to increase to more than 4,500 in the same time frame. Miami could see cases surge to more than 2,800 in the next three weeks. 

Researchers from the PolicyLab have warned that there is a risk Montgomery, Alabama; Little Rock, Arkansas; Tulsa, Oklahoma; Las Vegas, Nevada; and South Carolina could risk a similar resurgence. 

Data shows that the current levels in those cities is similar to where parts of Arizona, Texas and Florida were just a few weeks ago. 

PHOENIX FORECAST: As cases continue to rise, forecast models from the PolicyLab at Children's Hospital of Philadelphia predict infections in Phoenix (above) will rise to a staggering 28,000 new cases a day by July 18

PHOENIX FORECAST: As cases continue to rise, forecast models from the PolicyLab at Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia predict infections in Phoenix (above) will rise to a staggering 28,000 new cases a day by July 18

HOUSTON FORECAST: In Houston, daily infections are forecast to increase to more than 4,500 in the same time frame

HOUSTON FORECAST: In Houston, daily infections are forecast to increase to more than 4,500 in the same time frame

MIAMI FORECAST: Miami could see cases surge to more than 2,800 in the next three weeks

MIAMI FORECAST: Miami could see cases surge to more than 2,800 in the next three weeks

The forecasts, however, show that many counties across the country are starting to see stabilizing cases. States like Oregon, Louisiana, North Carolina and California are showing improving four-week forecasts, according to researchers.  

It is not yet clear how much of this stabilization in risk for resurgence is related to masking policies or increased personal vigilance in distancing and hygiene practices as people have observed what is happening in other parts of the country, the researchers say. 

David Rubin, the director of the PolicyLab, said the current forecasts may be an indication some states need to halt or scale back their reopenings. 

‘We’ve reached a point in communities throughout Arizona, Texas and Florida where the epidemic is accelerating at an alarming pace and may quickly overwhelm local health care systems -signaling a need to pause reopening plans,’ Rubin said. 

‘For those other areas of rising concern in our model that have forecasts similar to those of Arizona just a few weeks ago, we would encourage local leaders to view our projections as an early warning system and enact swift response measures to prevent further widespread community transmission.’ 

The current coronavirus surge has sent infections to dire new levels across the South and West with hospital administrators and health experts warning on Wednesday that politicians and a tired-of-being-cooped-up public are letting a disaster unfold. 

CALIFORNIA: In California, cases have surged nearly 70 percent in just two days. The state reported over 7,100 new cases on Wednesday, up from 4,230 on Sunday

CALIFORNIA: In California, cases have surged nearly 70 percent in just two days. The state reported over 7,100 new cases on Wednesday, up from 4,230 on Sunday

CALIFORNIA HOSPITALS: Hospitalizations have also reached record highs across the state in the past week

CALIFORNIA HOSPITALS: Hospitalizations have also reached record highs across the state in the past week 

TEXAS CASES: Rapidly worsening coronavirus numbers in Texas continue to reach bleak new milestones with the state recording more than 5,550 new cases in a single day

TEXAS CASES: Rapidly worsening coronavirus numbers in Texas continue to reach bleak new milestones with the state recording more than 5,550 new cases in a single day

TEXAS HOSPITAL: In Texas, which began lifting its shutdowns on May 1, hospitalizations have doubled and new cases have tripled in two weeks

TEXAS HOSPITAL: In Texas, which began lifting its shutdowns on May 1, hospitalizations have doubled and new cases have tripled in two weeks

TEXAS DEATHS: The state recorded an additional 29 deaths on Wednesday compared to the record 58 on May 15

TEXAS DEATHS: The state recorded an additional 29 deaths on Wednesday compared to the record 58 on May 15

While newly confirmed infections have been declining steadily in early hot spots like New York and New Jersey, several other states set single-day records this week, including Arizona, California, Mississippi, Nevada, Texas and Oklahoma. 

Some of them also broke hospitalization records, as did North Carolina and South Carolina. 

In California, cases have surged nearly 70 percent in just two days. The state reported over 7,100 new cases on Wednesday, up from 4,230 on Sunday. 

Hospitalizations have also reached record highs across the state with about 1,500 suspected or confirmed patients requiring intensive care. 

While Governor Gavin Newsom said part of the rise was due to testing, much is the result of people failing to engage in safe practices when gathering with friends and family, or visiting newly reopened businesses. 

Los Angeles County now has the most cases of all US counties with more than 85,000 confirmed infections. 

Florida’s single-day count surged to 5,500 on Wednesday – a 25 percent jump from the record of 4,049 on June 20. 

In Texas, which began lifting its shutdowns on May 1, hospitalizations have doubled and new cases have tripled in two weeks.  

Rapidly worsening coronavirus numbers in Texas continue to reach bleak new milestones with the state recording more than 5,550 new cases in a single day. 

Hospitalizations in Texas have again hit record numbers, leading the largest pediatric hospital in the US to begin treating adult patients in Houston. 

Florida recorded a record high 5,508 new cases on Wednesday, up from the previous record of 4,049 on June 20

Forty four new deaths were recorded across the state on Wednesday

FLORIDA: Florida recorded a record high 5,508 new cases (left) on Wednesday, up from the previous record of 4,049 on June 20. Forty four new deaths (right)were recorded across the state on Wednesday

ARIZONA CASES: Arizona reported 1,795 new cases on Tuesday, down from the record 3,591 new infections a day earlier

ARIZONA CASES: Arizona reported 1,795 new cases on Tuesday, down from the record 3,591 new infections a day earlier

ARIZONA HOSPITALS: The number of people admitted to Arizona hospitals with COVID-19 or suspected of having coronavirus on Tuesday was at 2,200

ARIZONA HOSPITALS: The number of people admitted to Arizona hospitals with COVID-19 or suspected of having coronavirus on Tuesday was at 2,200

ARIZONA DEATHS: Arizona recorded 79 new deaths on Tuesday - compared to the 67 deaths recorded on May 8

ARIZONA DEATHS: Arizona recorded 79 new deaths on Tuesday – compared to the 67 deaths recorded on May 8

In Arizona, emergency rooms are seeing about 1,200 suspected COVID-19 patients a day, compared with around 500 a month ago. If the trends continue, hospitals will probably exceed capacity within the next several weeks,according to Dr Joseph Gerald, a University of Arizona public health policy professor. 

‘We are in deep trouble,’ Gerald said as he urged the state to impose new restrictions on businesses, which Governor Doug Ducey has refused to do.  

Dr Peter Hotez, an infectious-disease expert at the Baylor College of Medicine in Texas, said he worries that states will squander what time they have to head off a much larger crisis.

‘We’re still talking about subtlety, still arguing whether or not we should wear masks, and still not understanding that a vaccine is not going to rescue us,’ he said.

The Texas governor initially barred local officials from fining or penalizing anyone for not wearing a mask as the state reopened. After cases began spiking, Abbott said last week that cities and counties could allow businesses to require masks.

More than a dozen US states and some major cities have face-covering rules. California Governor Gavin Newsom last week told residents to wear masks at nearly all times outside the home. Newsom has said he will withhold pandemic-related funding from local governments that brush off state requirements on masks and other anti-virus measures in response to the soaring numbers.

Washington Governor Jay Inslee on Tuesday ordered residents to wear face masks in public and Nevada’s Governor Steve Sisolak said residents will have to wear masks or face coverings out in public beginning Friday.

Just over 820 Americans died from coronavirus on Tuesday, bringing the total death toll to more than 121,000. It is the highest number of daily deaths recorded in the past week after fatality rates started declining nationwide

Just over 820 Americans died from coronavirus on Tuesday, bringing the total death toll to more than 121,000. It is the highest number of daily deaths recorded in the past week after fatality rates started declining nationwide

New cases in the US have been surging for more than a week after trending down for over six weeks. Nearly 35,000 new cases were reported on Tuesday, which is down from the record 36,000 infections that were logged on April 24

New cases in the US have been surging for more than a week after trending down for over six weeks. Nearly 35,000 new cases were reported on Tuesday, which is down from the record 36,000 infections that were logged on April 24

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